Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 78159.753271 82532.266193 86902.898310 91596.270237 96490.335523 101439.970038 106820.920093
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 70925.886339 77602.817386 84462.539275 92026.781841 100123.704181 108520.750543 117877.114915
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 65484.655218 73706.173407 82338.179194 92056.217594 102671.238955 113892.951038 126631.645258
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 62093.945900 71554.469169 81667.391550 93247.852377 106106.724565 119912.008630 135818.083031
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 58355.692777 68686.022356 79907.828552 92953.606519 107650.827338 123644.278709 142310.850932
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 56284.436531 67489.087546 79832.773865 94371.787607 110956.639230 129213.770709 150757.365832
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 54167.742635 66083.442505 79382.608306 95237.162627 113530.348596 133881.003558 158134.866893
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 51810.819802 64261.731197 78331.895294 95298.427239 115086.325228 137317.844216 164060.047703
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 49566.391624 62455.275558 77193.368422 95158.427082 116323.891467 140323.393335 169442.612218
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 48553.982014 62044.576301 77633.185695 96817.127259 119620.308621 145686.156346 177551.201045
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 47614.206492 61662.993015 78058.998866 98419.381982 122824.191989 150932.497412 185536.545992
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 46210.634478 60652.838107 77676.482838 99006.782188 124786.804632 154701.240355 191783.880462
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 44486.534767 59211.620477 76749.129616 98928.245319 125963.848776 157576.170378 197041.081040
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 43115.884965 58160.930073 76257.432400 99346.448129 127719.495602 161135.943462 203130.758987
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 41636.266305 56917.647369 75479.331304 99369.099936 128960.147227 164058.162960 208452.594318
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 40851.176807 56521.377936 75724.391459 100633.905451 131708.158163 168798.435343 215983.624750
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 39370.354540 55180.238097 74738.329642 100320.731501 132475.746675 171112.375354 220563.613302
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 38812.345482 55010.185015 75212.541861 101827.941652 135498.267844 176186.599894 228533.640323
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 38023.832089 54508.041575 75238.292262 102747.542695 137775.496446 180346.592333 235399.512514
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 36901.538550 53527.823260 74616.961269 102812.639479 138955.744442 183140.246703 240582.731366
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 35743.436895 52463.227188 73853.057206 102663.870492 139840.735280 185552.225384 245289.778515
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 35445.185641 52541.938164 74570.791291 104426.282805 143163.326348 191021.303147 253833.037777
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 35138.825504 52595.179415 75245.229615 106128.376320 146413.538984 196415.579652 262314.801725